The War in the Ukraine
First let me state that I am against war, whenever and wherever it takes place. I am against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There must be a way to settle things at the conference table and not with weapons. Human lives are more important. Having said that, let’s take a look at how we got into the current mess in the Ukraine.
1; German Reunification October 03, 1990
Part of the reunification agreement was that the Warsaw Pact will dissolve, and NATO will not be expanded. This is disputed, but Putin claims that Baker, in a discussion on February 09, 1990, with the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, made the promise that NATO would not expand eastward.
The following day Chancellor Helmut Kohl, ambiguous about Germany remaining in NATO after unification, also told Gorbachev, “Naturally NATO will not expand its territory to the current territory of the GDR (East Germany).” The promise was repeated in a speech by the NATO secretary general on May 17, a promise cited by Putin in his Munich speech. In his memoirs, Gorbachev described these assurances as the moment that cleared the way for compromise on Germany. (Source: The Guardian on Jan. 12, 2022). It was also agreed that the Warsaw Pact will be dissolved, which it was.
Unfortunately, the promise was not kept and since that time 14 nations in Eastern Europe have become members of NATO. Eight of them bordering Russia directly.
Here are the countries and the dates when they joined NATO:
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, March 12, 1999
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, March 29, 2004
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, March 29, 2004
Albania, Croatia, April 01, 2009
Montenegro, June 05, 2017
North Macedonia, March 27, 2020
2; The Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014 are an important pivotal point on the way which brought us to the current situation.
3; 2014 Toppling of the Ukrainian Government, with the help of the USA. President Viktor Yanukovych, whose government was either neutral or Russian friendly, was removed from office in February and was replaced by a pro-Western interim government. Russia reacted by invading Crimea, because they figured, with a pro-western government in the Ukraine, they would lose their naval base in Sevastopol. This resulted in sanctions against Russia by western nations.
4; Independence of Crimea. March 11, 2014, Crimea’s parliament declared Crimea’s independence from Ukraine, which was followed by a referendum on March 16, 2014, with 78% in favor, and 22% against Crimea’s secession from Ukraine.
5; Donetsk and Luhansk. During that time Donetsk and Luhansk, two regions in eastern Ukraine, also known as Donbas, whose Population consists primarily of ethnic Russians, simultaneously declared independence. 8 years of internal war against the two provinces followed, during which 14,000 people lost their life
6; Minsk Protocol. To stop the fighting The Minsk Protocol (2014) and the Minsk II (2015) agreement where signed. Unfortunately, the agreements were adhered to.
7; The Ukrainian presidential election was held on March 31 and April 21 in a two-round vote. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a comedian who portrayed a fictional president of Ukraine in the comedy television series “Servant of the People,” was elected President.
8; NATO membership of the Ukraine. When it was considered that Ukraine would become a member of NATO and weapons from the West started to arrive, Putin made a mistake. On November 30, 2021, he sternly warned NATO against deploying its troops and weapons to Ukraine, saying it represents a red line for Russia and would trigger a strong response. He put himself into a corner.
As I said in the beginning, I am against war, whenever and wherever it takes place. There must be a better way to settle things at the conference table and not with weapons. Let’s sit down and talk.
The early role of Putin (from an article by General-Major of the Bundeswehr Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof)
Initially, Putin attempted a rapprochement with the “West” and tried to link the Russian Federation with the EU and NATO. In three speeches held in Germany in 2001, 2007 and 2010 he proposed a free trade zone between the EU and Russia and failed. And during Bill Clinton’s farewell visit to Moscow in 2000, he brought up Russia’s integration into NATO. Again without positive feedback. The end of the overtures only came after the change in foreign policy in the “West”. In 1997, still under Clinton, the American Secretary of State Albright pushed through the eastward expansion of NATO. In 2007, at the Munich Security Conference, Putin declared further NATO eastward expansion into the territory of the former Soviet Union as “crossing a red line”.
A well-balanced plan by Prof. Dr. H. Köchler.
He has proposes that the only way to achieve peace in the Ukraine is a threefold agreement:
1; Permanent Neutrality
2; Non-Alignment (free of a policy of alliance whether East or West)
3; Federal Structure of the Country (giving autonomy to the different regions like in Switzerland). This could be flanked by a large Free Trade Area. In this political setting, in which Eastern and Western parts of the Ukraine would get positive recognition and acceptance
The result would be an unprecedented wellbeing and prosperity of the country. If President Wolodymyr Selenskyj would make this offer I am sure that Putin would accept it and the war would be over, but do the people in the backrooms want that?
Ernst Friedel 